Even GTA 5 Can't Save Poor 2012 Console Game Sales - Analysts

Tom Hopkins

GTA 5 won't be able to overturn 2012's downward spiral of console game sales if it launches before the end of the financial year.

Published on Jul 9, 2012

Grand Theft Auto 5 details - especially the game's release date - are still massively under wraps, but even in if the mega-hit-in-waiting launches before the end of the financial year (March 2013) it won't be able to turn around 12 months of dwindling console game sales, say analysts.

Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter thinks the game could generate revenue of $700 million, still far from enough (less than ten per cent) to make a hugely positive dent in the US game industry's  annual sales figures, according to a report on VB.

"I am not confident that it will be out this year, and even if it did, we would still likely see a modest decline in console software sales," Robert W. Baird & Co analyst Colin Sebastian told the site.

"Given the current momentum of the market, I doubt any major releases, even one of GTA V’s size, would push the physical markets back into the positives," added EEDAR's Jesse Divnich. "The traditional gaming sector is under an enormous amount of downward pressure at the moment, and it will require a strong catalyst to shift that momentum."

Divnich suggested publisher's could make a digital game free for a limited time to stimulate sales. "The cost would be relatively small if they could work out an agreement with the developer ahead of time," he explained.

GTA 5 release date estimates range from the prime November slot this year to May 2013 - Rockstar's recent favoured release month. The latter wouldn't tie up with Take Two's recent financial estimates however, according to analysts.



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