Take Two Revenue 'Not Possible If GTA 5 Doesn't Release By April 2013'

Tom Hopkins

Analysts predict Take Two and Rockstar will bring GTA 5 to market sometime in the next 10 months, despite continued silence around the game.

Published on May 23, 2012

Grand Theft Auto 5 will launch during the current financial year if Take Two is to hit it's projected revenue for FY2013, according to Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz and Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter.

Take Two forecasts revenue of $1.7 billion for the year ending 31 March.

"We believe management could not provide this level of guidance with any degree of confidence if it did not anticipate shipping Grand Theft Auto 5 during FY13," Creutz wrote in a guidance report.

"Take-Two's announced line up of titles for FY13 was largely unchanged, including continuing to resist announcing a release date for Grand Theft Auto 5... We are modelling a ship date for Grand Theft Auto 5 in the last two weeks of March 2013."

Pachter agrees that Take Two's "revenue guidance is unattainable without a huge seller from Rockstar.

"Guidance strongly implies the release of Grand Theft Auto 5 in FY:13. Although management did not provide a release date or window for GTA 5, its FY:13 revenue guidance is unattainable without a huge seller from Rockstar."

The numbers quite clearly point towards a GTA 5 release before the end of the financial year according to Pachter.

"Management disclosed that the FY:13 revenue mix by label is estimated to be 60 per cent Rockstar Games and 40 per cent 2K Games. Rockstar is expected to contribute ≈ $1.1 billion, with ≈ $300 million from Max Payne (including DLC) and ≈ $150 million from catalog. The remaining ≈ $650 million is simply not possible without the release of GTA V well before FY end."

Rockstar would be reluctant to risk letting GTA 5's release date slip with the imminent lure of next-generation consoles Pachter added.


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